A view from Pakistan
Managing Modi
Two
glass ceilings got broken in the first two decades of this century: a
black man’s son became the president of the United States – the oldest
democracy in the world and a chaiwala’s son was elected in a sweeping
victory as the prime minister of India – the largest democracy of the
world. A third such occasion is likely in 2016 when a woman just might
become the first ever female president of the US. This is paradigms
being shattered.
If
you want to really celebrate democracy as some in this country are
prone to do simply by seeing one civilian government transition to
another, note the speed at which from mid-1960s both the ‘coloured’ and
the women, and the weak, have been able to find their place in the real
democracies of the world on their merit alone.
No
dynasties, no historical reference of a father or a grandfather having
once been at a position of entitlement – simply the capacity and the
ability of a person (men, women, ‘coloured’) to prove his credentials in
a field of play that is cut-throat competitive and where only the best
will survive.
There are only two
references in a competitive electoral play; the person: his charisma,
charm and magical spell over the people – think Jinnah, Gandhi, Mandela,
and Bhutto; and the performance – think Manmohan Singh when he got his
country some exceptional growth figures under Narasimha Rao, and more
recently, Narendra Modi with his outstanding developmental record in
Gujarat.
Modi romped home with a
strength that was surprising even to him though pundits had already
predicted a wave of change. But what a performance. Kudos to India for
such an election; not a murmur of rigging or absence of fair-play. To
win in such an election and with the margin that Modi has, is simply too
big a landmark in contemporary political history. It was a ‘wow’ moment
for India and the country needs to be applauded for it.
Modi
is a rare combination of the two. He has his spell and a sterling
record of development, aided without doubt by an enabling environment
where the electorate could only rest their hopes on him after others had
betrayed it with dismal performance. He seems a man who can easily
connect with the people. An effective orator, he outshined Rahul Gandhi
who appeared unenthused and listless in comparison.
To
the dismay of many in Pakistan, let me suggest that if Modi gets his
act together, he will take India places. India will change, perhaps
finally realising its dream and potential, as will its polity. India
will never be the same again; this remains my considered opinion. He is
that kind of fellow.
Many in Pakistan
wondered if this was an election lost or an election won. If there was
one factor that played in wooing the voters, it was leadership, or the
lack of it when they disavowed the Congress. That did it for Modi. Modi
appeared resolute, clear headed, focused and decisive; all that Manmohan
or Rahul were not.
Is there a lesson
out there for us and our political class? Especially in our current
situation where not only are institutions entangled with each other,
they are also breaking up within. What is needed for Pakistan too is a
no-nonsense style of leadership that is upfront, owns the problems, and
seems willing and active in doing something about it. Not the kind of
absent leadership that sleeps by the side as the state and the nation
unravel before it.
Statesmanship has
been wrongly understood by this clan. They think sleeping through, or
remaining detached and above the fray is how statesmen are made. There
cannot be another as fallacious a conception. Statesmen are leaders, and
leaders work with their hands. Will Modi spur Nawaz to do better? I
feel the simple relativity of how India propels, and how Pakistan
nosedives under listless, lackadaisical leadership, will be enough
factors to force a change. Of what kind will remain to be seen.
Manmohan’s listlessness was too contagious.
Modi,
however is no goody-two-shoes. He is also characterised as the ‘butcher
of Gujarat’. That will change. He is someone who reads his role well.
What was needed then to appease some at the RSS was then and that helped
him establish his position within the party; but now there is a
different role for him.
The weight of
his victory will help Modi establish his influence not only within the
BJP, but also within the RSS. He is likely to have much greater freedom
of action, as he now goes about establishing himself as a man of
substance in the international arena. He will not be the gung-ho Modi
that we assume, instead he will be deliberate, firm and unyielding in
the way that he charts his and India’s future.
How
might then Pakistan manage him? The first apprehension is will he war
with Pakistan. Here is how it will go. He will begin with an immediate
assessment of what his armed forces will need to gain an assured level
of readiness – armed forces are always short of what they assume is
absolute readiness; remember the nine months that Manekshaw needed
before the 1971 war, or how the Indian army dithered after Mumbai from a
reprisal action.
Modi’s aim will not
be to seek a war. But come another situation like Mumbai 2008, he would
like his military to respond with effect; of that there should be little
confusion. Pakistan will then need to evolve its own plan to first
deter and then respond to such a reprisal. That will put them both on a
slippery slope of escalation dominance.
What both
sides will need instead are measures and processes that will control and
manage escalation, not dominate it. Failing these the spiral down the
stability regime will be rather rapid; consequences untold and
horrendous. It will also help if another Mumbai does not occur. We can
be assured of Modi working hard to find space for an armed retribution
if he was tested with something as horrible as that. It is better to be
prepared than be surprised. And how do you manage him? By simply being
better at what he does. With our current pack, forget it.
Tailpiece:
In a master stroke Modi has invited Nawaz Sharif to his inauguration.
That is enough to test the mettle of Pakistan’s leadership. If Nawaz
goes he will need the acumen to dominate his first interaction with
Modi. Otherwise he is coming back with a clearer enunciation of how Modi
would like Nawaz to respond to his concerns. Devil and the deep blue
sea, is it?
The writer is a retired air-vice marshal of the Pakistan Air Force and served as its deputy chief of staff.
